Socialist opposition leader George Papandreou, the likely winner, wants to inject up to ⁈ion ($4.39 billion) to stimulate the economy, give public sector workers above-inflation pay rises and boost infrastructure investment.

Conservative Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis is seeking a renewed mandate to pass urgent but unpopular reforms. He has pledged to freeze salaries, pensions and hirings, cut spending and take severe action against widespread tax evasion.

The scandal-mired Conservatives are trailing the Socialists by up to 7 percentage points, halfway through their second four-year term in office, and look unlikely to pull off a last-minute reverse.

But Papandreou could have a hard task selling his recovery plan to the European Commission.

The budget deficit is well over the European Union ceiling of three percent of economic output, and Economy Minister Yiannis Papathanassiou conceded Thursday it could reach 8 percent this year, although some analysts fear it could be as high as 10 percent.

The public debt as a percentage of GDP _ already second only to Italy's in the euro zone _ is set to surpass 100 percent. Unemployment, meanwhile, rose to 8.6 percent in June.

"The leeway in terms of expanding the fiscal policy now is really limited," said Citigroup economist Giada Giani, adding that the EU trend is towards fiscal consolidation.

"I think that if Greece would deviate from this pattern and go now for a fiscal stimulus it would stand out among its peers in the EU, and it would be very difficult politically to make this shift accepted at the European level."

After years of growth fueled by consumer spending, Greece's economy contracted in the second quarter of this year and is expected to slide into a recession, albeit a minor one.

Eurobank analyst Platon Monokroussos said real gross domestic product is likely to contract by one percent or slightly less in 2009, as the positive contribution from net exports will help counterbalance a more pronounced decline in domestic demand.

"From a medium-term perspective a shift towards a less consumption-dependent and export-oriented economic development model will be needed to ensure a return to positive and sustainable growth," he said.

Tourism revenues, which account for more than 15 percent of GDP, are down 17 percent from last year _ a loss of some ⁈ion ($2.85 billion), according to industry officials. The shipping and construction sectors have also suffered.

"Obviously you don't really want to tighten fiscal policy too much at this stage because if we've seen some mild signs of recovery you don't want to kill the recovery at the beginning," Giani said.

"On the other hand, the only way out in the medium term is really an improvement in the fiscal deficit and stabilization or decline in the debt to GDP ratio."

Karamanlis, 53, has pledged to slash spending if elected _ even reducing the salaries of lawmakers and other state officials _ pass structural reforms and combat widespread tax evasion through better data-checking.

Conservative officials say they can cut the deficit by up to ⁈lion over the next two years, bringing it under the EU ceiling in 2011, and dismiss the Socialists' plan as wishful thinking that will add nearly ⁈lion to the deficit.

Papandreou, 57, says Greece suffers more from bad governance than a lack of funds, arguing that uncollected taxes alone account for some ⁈lion _ ten times what his stimulus program would cost.

But he doesn't specify where that money will come from, instead pledging to crack down on endemic corruption and to usher in a "fairer tax system" targeting the richest one-tenth of the population.

"If we don't have a vibrant economy, we will never deal with the debt," he said. "We need to first jump-start the economy for a short period, to give us the breathing-space to make the changes and then move on to a different type of economy within the next few years." ."