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U.S. Fed likely to hold near-zero rates to spur recovery
Economists highlight that despite the Fed's loose reins, credit remains unusually tight
Agence France-Presse
Page 16
2009-11-05 12:00 AM
The U.S. Federal Reserve opened a two-day policy-setting meeting Tuesday expected to leave interest rates near zero and emergency measures on hold to undperin fragile recovery from recession.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) headed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke likely will stay its highly accommodative course to help get credit, the lifeblood of the economy, flowing as the recovery progresses in fits and starts, analysts said.

"We don't expect any change in the underlying federal funds interest rate target, currently zero percent to 0.25 percent, or a change in the timing of the Fed's removal of its quantitative easing program," said Frederic Dickson at DA Davidson & Co.

The FOMC was expected to announce its rate decision around 2:15 p.m. yesterday.

Economists and traders will be poring over the accompanying FOMC statement for signals of the central bank's outlook on the sustainability of the nascent recovery and the direction of monetary policy.

The Fed meeting comes as economic data gives mixed economic signals on the strength and sustainability of the world's largest economy, but with a generally positive bias.

The FOMC has held its base rate target near zero since last December in a bid to help kick-start the economy out of the worst downturn since the Great Depression.

The U.S. economy grew for the first time in a year in the third quarter, at a 3.5 percent annual rate largely the result of government stimulus spending, official data showed Thursday.

The Fed "may begin to lay the groundwork for the central bank's eventual exit from financial markets in its statement," said Joseph Brusuelas, analyst at Moody's Economy.com.

Brusuelas projected a hike in the funds rate in late 2010. "We do not expect the committee to increase rates until unemployment has stabilized and the recovery has been deemed sustainable," he said.

Economists highlighted that despite the Fed's loose reins, credit remains unusually tight.

"The only expansion effort banks are embracing right now is risk-free lending. Until that view changes, economic performance will remain subpar and policy rates will remain low for an extended period," said Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com.

"The U.S. economy has a pulse fortunately, yet it's a long way still from having a strong heartbeat because it has such low blood pressure."

Bernanke recently signaled there was no hurry to tighten monetary policy, saying action would be taken "when the economic outlook has improved sufficiently."

The Fed often waits at least several months after unemployment, a lagging indicator of recovery, peaks before beginning to raise rates.

With nearly 10 percent of the labor force out of work, consumer spending - the traditional main motor of the U.S. economy and key to a sustainable recovery - remains challenged.

The unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September. Most analysts expect a 9.9 percent reading for October.

"The most important implication of the expected slow recovery is that the economy is unlikely to see full employment for many years," said Karen Dynan at The Brookings Institution.

 
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