今年十二月五日的縣長選舉結果,將?驗重新回鍋擔任?主席的馬英九，他?領導的執政團隊及國民?是否被人民?肯定。

Ma Ying-jeou has been in power for over a year, but after Typhoon Morakot struck on Aug. 8, his ability to govern was called into question, with his standing in the opinion polls at one point falling below 20 percent. Changing the premier was originally thought to help Ma's poll performance, but then the controversy broke loose about the import of beef products from the United States. Leading KMT member Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin was the one to fire the first shot of opposition against the decision. In addition, the vote-buying case in the elections for the KMT's Central Standing Committee led to the suspicion that Ma wanted to insert his own supporters by pushing for a complete re-election, causing a further slip in support.

馬英九執政至今巳一年多，在今年八八水災時，他的執政?能力被高度質疑，民?一度跌至２０﹪以下。換了?揆，本?以為會為馬英九民?止跌回升，不料；最近又爆出美國牛肉進口問題，連台北市長郝龍斌都帶頭開第一槍反對，加上國民?中常委賄選案，馬英九被外界質疑在強力運作全面改選中常委中，大量安排馬系人馬，再次的使馬英九民意支持度下降。

There is less than one month left to the December elections for county magistrates, city mayors, and county and city councils, yet the KMT is still busy with the re-election of its Central Standing Committee, so there is no time to spend on the local elections. When the committee will be re-elected, there will only be half a month left before the county votes. If Ma's poll support can still maintain its level from last year's presidential election, there will be no reason to worry. However, times have changed, and Ma Ying-jeou is no longer a guarantee for a strong election performance. In addition, Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin is emulating Ma's habit as mayor of the capital of challenging the central government (then in the person of President Lee Teng-hui). Hau has also set himself apart from the consequences of decisions made during Ma's term as mayor, such as the problems with the Mass Rapid Transit line to Neihu and with the Maokong Gondola. Hau's refusal to bear the responsibility for those projects is a direct challenge to Ma's authority within the pan-blue camp and to his place in the hearts of the public, and will also influence the election results.

距離十二月的地方縣市長。縣市議員大選、?下不到一?月，國民?內部卻仍忙著改選中常委，無暇顧及地方選舉，等中常委改選完，距離投票日只?半?月，屆時如果馬英九的民意支持度還能維繫在去年選總統的熱度上，倒也不用擔心，但是今非昔比，馬英九巳不再是票房保?。加上?內郝龍斌巳展現當年馬英九在台北市長任內，砲打中央（李登輝擔任總統時代）的挑?態?，不只如此，連馬市長任內?造成的後遺症；木柵到內湖的捷運出包問題及貓纜基座掏空案，他也採取和馬英九撇清立場，不再為馬英九擔責任、揹黑鍋，這是直接挑?馬英九在泛藍的權威在人民人中的地位，也直接響選舉結果。

The KMT's election prospects are stable only in Keelung City, Miaoli County, Chiayi City and Taitung County. In Hsinchu County, incumbent magistrate Cheng Yung-chin faced expulsion from the KMT rather than give up his support for independent Chang Pi-chin, giving the official KMT candidate, Chiu Ching-chun, a difficult time.

各縣、市長選情，除基隆市、新竹市、苗栗縣、嘉義市、台東縣較穩定外。新竹縣，出現現任縣長鄭永金寧可被開除?籍，也要支持違紀?選的張?琴，使國民?提名的邱鏡淳現入苦?。

In Nantou County, the Democratic Progressive Party united its factions by making peace with the supporters of former magistrate Lin Tsung-nan, while the KMT faces the alternative candidacy of Chen Chen-sheng, causing incumbent Lee Chao-ching to face a divided party.

南投縣民進?收編林宗男團結了民進?的派系後，國民?卻陷入陳振盛違紀?選，挑?現任李朝卿縣長的分裂情?。

Even though the KMT isn't facing any dissidents in Changhua County, factions have been lacking in enthusiasm in their support for incumbent Cho Po-yuan, with a majority of them reportedly backing DPP candidate Weng Chin-chu.

彰化縣，雖然沒有違紀選?選的人，但是泛藍各派系似乎支持現任縣長卓伯源的少，反?暗助民進?翁金珠比較多。

In Chiayi County, council speaker Hsiao Teng-piao joined the race, causing a major element of surprise in the race between KMT candidate Weng Chung-chun and DPP candidate Chang Hwa-kuan.

嘉義縣，出現議長蕭登標?選，造成翁重鈞（國民?）與張花冠（民進?）對決下的重大變數。

The green camp is slightly larger than the blue side in Pingtung County. Because there has been no split in the blue camp, there was an expectation the local KMT could combine support from the central government level with its own unity to increase its advantage, but as the region fell victim to Typhoon Morakot, it will be difficult to unseat the DPP county government. The problems of interrupted bridges, damaged roads and clogged waterways have still not been resolved.

屏東縣，是綠稍大於藍，這次泛藍沒有再鬧雙包，本?在泛藍團結加上中央執政的國民?可以行政動員?彌補差距，卻因為屏東為八八水災的重災區，至今斷橋、道路、下水道堵塞問題尚未?決，恐怕藍軍想板倒民進?現任縣長也困難。

In Hualien County, the party nominated Tu Li-hua and expelled two other candidates, Fu Kun-chi and Chang Chih-ming, while threatening the same treatment against local KMT officials who supported the two. As a result, the KMT dissidents and their supporters pulled together, with opinion polls now showing Fu as the strongest contender. The dissenter's strong performance is ironic and embarrassing considering the KMT's insistence on expelling him.

花蓮縣，雖然國民?提名杜麗華?選，又開除另外兩位?選人傅崑萁。張?明的?籍，又對支持兩位?選人的?籍幹部，亦祭出開除?籍的招式，無奈這些違紀及其支持者更加團結，按目前民?傅崑萁?出機率較大，這對國民?堅持開除傅崑萁?籍將是一大諷刺及難堪。

Ilan County was originally a DPP stronghold but Lu Kuo-hua managed to get elected thanks to the Ma Ying-jeou aura. Now that Ma's image has suffered and Lu's performance has failed to inspire, his road to re-election looks increasingly problematic.

宜蘭縣，本?就是民進?大本營，呂國華在當年英九光環之下當選縣長，如今馬英九光環不再，呂國華政績平平想要連任恐怕非常辛苦。

Kinmen and Matsu are also the scene of inter-party battles but whoever wins or loses, the fights will mostly be regarded as storms in a teacup.

金門、馬祖都是藍軍對打，輸贏卻都是茶壼內見風暴，不足為慮。