Academia Sinica researchers have published a study that shows the risk of extreme rainfall due to global warming is substantially greater than estimated in current climate models and that the situation is even graver in Taiwan.
中央研究院研究人員發表的一項研究顯示，因全球暖化導致極端降雨的風險，遠超過目前的氣候模型所估計的，而此情況在台灣更為嚴重。
Professor Shaw Chen Liu, director of Academia Sinica's Research Center for Environmental Changes, and his research team published their findings in the September issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
中研院環境變遷研究中心主任劉紹臣教授，和他的研究小組在九月號地球物理研究快報上發表了他們的研究成果。
The research paper states that for each degree Kelvin increase in global mean temperature, the intensity of rain increases by about 110 percent for the top 10 percent heaviest rain, and decreases by about 20 percent for the bottom 40 percent lightest rain.
這份研究報告指出，全球平均氣溫每增加絕對溫度一度，前百分之十的最大降雨強度增加約1.1倍，而後百分之四十的最小降雨則減少約百分之二十。
The researchers found that the global average precipitation intensity increases by about 23 percent per Kelvin of temperature change. This result is qualitatively consistent with a recent hypothesis that precipitation intensity would increase by more than the accepted 7 percent per Kelvin of water vapor temperature rise because of the additional latent heat released from the moisture.
研究人員發現，全球平均降雨強度隨絕對溫度每一度的變化，可增加約百分之二十三。這一結果性質上符合最近的一項假設──降雨強度將因為濕氣釋放額外的潛熱，增加得超過公認的水蒸汽絕對溫度每上升一度即增加百分之七的假設。
Based on the observations of the researchers, as torrential rainfall gets heavier and monsoons get lighter, there will be a sharp increase in the risk of floods and mudslides, as well as more severe and frequent droughts.
依據研究人員的觀察，隨暴雨加強而季風趨緩，洪水和土石流，以及更嚴重而頻繁的旱災，發生的風險將大幅增加。
Predicting higher risk of floods and mudslides and worse droughts, Liu suggests that adaptation strategies, such as flood control, water resource policy and land use plans, are urgently needed.
由於預測洪水、土石流和嚴重乾旱發生的風險將更高，劉教授建議，適應策略如防洪、水資源政策和土地利用計劃，都是迫切需要的。
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