The opposition Democratic Progressive Party was likely to wrest back Ilan County from the KMT, while Hsinchu County and Hualien County would be won by independent breakaway candidates from the ruling camp, said the poll by the National Chengchi University Center for Prediction Market, the Academia Sinica Institute of Information Science and Swarchy, Inc.

The elections are seen as the first test of public support for President Ma Ying-jeou since he took over as KMT chairman on October 17.

His government has been facing widespread dissatisfaction over its handling of the economic crisis, last August’s Typhoon Morakot, and the import of bone-in beef from the United States.

Ilan County was held by the green camp for 24 years, by county magistrates who went on to nationwide fame such as late Justice Minister Chen Ding-nan and former Premier Yu Shyi-kun.

In 2005, KMT candidate Lu Kuo-hua won the county, but after only four years in office, he was facing defeat by DPP candidate Lin Tsung-hsien, the poll said.

Hsinchu and Hualien are counties where the KMT have been wracked by internal dissension. In Hsinchu County, KMT lawmaker Chiu Ching-chun has been a long-time rival of outgoing county magistrate Cheng Yung-chin, who has publicly thrown his support behind County Council Speaker Chang Pi-chin, which has earned him expulsion from the ruling party. The poll pointed at Chang as the most likely winner of next month’s election.

Hualien County residents can choose between three candidates originally within the KMT ranks, but the official candidate was unlikely to win, according to the poll. The frontrunner was lawmaker Fu Kun-chi, who was also expelled because of his candidacy.

The poll said Fu was likely to defeat both the official KMT contender, county government official Tu Li-hua, and another defector, Vice Magistrate Chang Chih-ming. The latter has the support of outgoing County Magistrate Hsieh Shen-shan and of the DPP, which did not nominate a candidate of its own.

Looking at the full picture, the poll said the DPP would win four counties and cities, the KMT 11, and independents two, being Hsinchu and Hualien. Ilan was the only county which would change hands between KMT and DPP, with the ruling party not winning any areas at the expense of the opposition.

In a significant number of areas, the elections have been postponed until next year to allow for merger or administrative upgrading. Those areas include the DPP strongholds of Tainan County, Tainan City and Kaohsiung County. Elections have also been delayed in Taichung City and Taichung County, and in Taipei County, the densely populated area around the capital where the DPP was thought to have a good chance of regaining power.