It is clear that negotiations between Taiwan and China on a trade agreement have become more intense since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. Recent remarks made by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, and in particular Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's statement that he hopes the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) could be signed in May or June, indicate that they have stepped up the rhetoric.
The ECFA could be a variable in the year-end mayoral elections in five municipalities and in the 2012 presidential race. But Ma is hoping that it could be signed by May or June so that it will not be an issue in the elections. Beijing is most likely worried about this as well.
Such political maneuvering is understandable. But surely the effects of the ECFA in Taiwan will go beyond the December elections.
It will have a major impact on long-term cross-Taiwan Strait links.
Therefore, the focus should not be on signing the ECFA before the mayoral elections, but rather on gaining majority public support for the contents of the pact.
It is clear that mainstream public opinion in Taiwan plays a role in cross-strait relations. In order to achieve "peaceful development" across the strait, Taiwan and China leaders must pay heed to the views of the Taiwan public. In addition, the Taiwan people must be able to feel that there is sincerity and goodwill on Beijing's part with regard to the ECFA.
Wang Yi, director of Beijing's China Affairs Office, has reiterated Hu's principle of "doing the right thing, and doing things right" in terms of cross-strait ties and the ECFA. This is a huge challenge for Beijing and the Ma administration, whose future is closely linked to the results of the year-end mayoral elections and the 2012 presidential race. (March 9, 2010) (By Flor Wang)
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