Somewhere in the West Wing, Larry Summers is smiling. The Obama administration economist, whose name is never invoked without "brilliant" attached to it, has been touted as a likely successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.Bernanke's four-year term ends in February, and the subject of his reappointment is starting to preoccupy the political class in Washington.
Summers was probably tuned in last week when his primary competition for the job endured withering questioning from members of the House Oversight Committee on the behind-the-scenes dealings in connection with Bank of America Corp.'s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. If this was Bernanke's out-of-town tryout, the revue needs work before moving to Broadway.
Testifying under oath, Bernanke told the committee in no uncertain terms that "neither I nor any member of the Federal Reserve ever directed, instructed or advised Bank of America to withhold from public disclosure any information relating to Merrill Lynch, including its losses, compensation packages or bonuses, or any other related matter." He said the Fed had acted with the "highest integrity" in facilitating the merger.
Members of Congress weren't buying. If Bernanke didn't advise Bank of America Chief Executive Ken Lewis to withhold material information from shareholders and didn't threaten to remove the board of directors and management if Lewis walked away from the deal, they wanted to know who did.
In their hostility to Bernanke, lawmakers were the very model of bipartisanship. (Ranking member Darrell Issa, Republican of California, wasn't kidding when he said "I look forward to continuing this on a bipartisan basis.")
Bernanke could have used a presentation-skills coach, not to mention a make-up artist. He looked tired, which is understandable for someone running on little sleep and maximum stress. He was uncomfortable with the subject matter, preferring the arcana of output gaps and inflation expectations to fending off accusations of improper conduct on the part of the Fed. Several times under pressure, he fell back on "I don't recollect" or "I don't recall" the details of a particular conversation or e-mail.
The Fed chief was asked repeatedly whether he threatened to fire Ken Lewis and his board; whether he instructed former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to convey that threat; whether he promised a specific amount of government money if the deal were consummated; and whether he had knowingly withheld information on the merger from other regulatory agencies. And he repeatedly answered in the negative.
In so doing, he violated what my colleague calls the First Rule of PR: Never deny beating your wife. Never say, "I'm not a crook."
When you do, you lose.
Bernanke lost on defense. Not that his offense was anything to write home about, considering he can run circles around lawmakers, many of whom look as if they are reading their staff-prepared opening statements for the first time.
He dodged questions about whether Lewis and Paulson were lying when they claimed he was the bearer of threats. As far as the audience is concerned, a dodge is as bad as negative denial (see First Rule of PR above).
Interestingly, Lewis refused to use the word "threat" to describe government pressure to complete the merger at his June 11 House Oversight Committee hearing. (It must have something to do with the lawyers' coaching on safe word selection.) Previously, he told New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo that, on learning of Merrill's mounting losses in December, he tried to invoke the material adverse conditions clause to scuttle the deal and was threatened by Paulson.
Even as the lawmakers grilled Bernanke on the details of the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch merger, they praised him for the job he was doing holding the financial system together.
Which brings us back to Larry Summers and Bernanke's reappointment. Economists downplayed the role of testimony in any decision to reappoint the Fed chairman. They respect Bernanke and are glad they aren't in his position.
Financial-market types, on the other hand, were quick to declare Bernanke toast, crown Summers as the heir apparent and concoct a conspiracy theory to fit the facts.
Summers may have to wait his turn. It would be hard to find someone more suited for the job of Fed chairman than Bernanke. His performance yesterday has nothing to do with his unique qualifications for the position.
All the elements for the worst financial crisis since the one he studied and wrote about (the real Depression) were in place when he became Fed chairman: a housing bubble built on a sea of bad loans and too much leverage. Bernanke has transformed the Fed into a collegial institution, which is a good thing because the Fed chairman needs all the help he can get right now.
Summers, for all his brilliance, consistently earns poor grades in "plays well with others." Unless President Barack Obama wants a solo pilot, he would do well to tap Bernanke for a second term.